KO's 2007 MLB Season Preview
Posted: Sunday, April 01, 2007 7:45 PM by Keith Olbermann
A little baseball for the cognoscenti from the
man who a year ago picked the Tigers to win the Wild Card and Ryan Howard to win
the MVP trophy.
To start in the National League, stay away from the hype. The Phillies are not only not the heir apparent; by June they'll
probably have fired their manager. The overloaded starting staff is underperforming, there is no semblance of middle-innings relief, and the
closer's doubtful. They've stuck Pat Burrell behind Howard in the batting order
and besides is usual troubles with a tight collar in the clutch, he's been in
and out of a back brace. Shane Victorino might do the job in rightfield but
they're expecting Wes Helms to do it at third. Disaster looms.
The Mets had their shot last year but Willie
Randolph wouldn't bunt with two on and none out in the ninth in Game 7 against
the Cardinals. Now, he's toying with batting David Wright second. It's
insanity. The Mets may get what they want out of their rotation, but the idea
that Moises Alou and Shawn Green will both get 500 productive at bats is
ludicrous. They may not get 500 at bats of any kind between them.
The Braves, meantime, blew 29 saves last year.
They now have a fine closer in Bob Wickman, and two would-be closers in Mike
Gonzalez and the terrifying Rafael Soriano as his predecessors. Jeff Francoeur
is ready to take the next step, and other than first base there are no holes in
the lineup.
Everybody but the Reds and Pirates will
compete in the Central, and the Reds and Pirates might. But the Brewers, after some
missteps last season, are on the verge of greatness. Prince Fielder and Rickie
Weeks are on the verge of greatness and Johnny Estrada should stabilize the
starters from behind the plate. Their question is the bullpen.
The Cubs could score seven runs a game -- and
give up twelve. Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis could fulfill their potential, finally
-- and I could be named manager of the Phillies. In St. Louis, in a switch, I like the
seemingly-patchwork rotation but not the offense. I swear, I swear, Pujols looks
smaller this year.
In the West, the Diamondbacks could give up
twelve a game, and score fifteen. Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin (if
his labrum heals) and Conor Jackson might lead the way in a watershed year for
the next set of stars -- and they'll probably be enough to overcome a wobbly
starting staff. The situation could be identical in Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki
and Chris Iannella joining the more familiar sluggers like Garrett Atkins and
Matt Holliday. The Padres and Dodgers have nice teams, but maybe not nice
enough.
I like the Braves handily in the East with the
Mets second, Florida third, Philadelphia imploding to fourth, and Washington
fielding one of the worst teams in recent history. They may not win
50.
Brewers in a close call in the Central, St
Louis with the wild card, Houston, Cincy, the Cubs frustrating Lou Piniella
enough to at least make him think of quitting, and the Pirates, if such a thing
is possible, a promising last.
Arizona won't win the West by much, and
Colorado, Los Angeles and San Diego will all finish at about the same level. The
Giants' pitching will surprise, but their offense will not.
Bet on one of the youngsters to arise to MVP
levels. Francoeur? Fielder? Russell Martin of the Dodgers? The safety pick is
Alfonso Soriano in an Andre Dawson-like arrival at Wrigley. If it's Jose Reyes
-- and it could be -- it will be unanimous after a batting championship and a
Mets' crown.
Your Cy Young will be old -- John Smoltz (take
Milwaukee's Dave Bush if you want a darkhorse). And your Rookie Of The Year will
be Young -- Chris Young of Arizona.
---
The American League will be headlined by the collapse of the Yankees. They just
looked listless to me, even though all the components are on the roster. I am no
longer responsible for Alex Rodriguez's psychic debts. Pitching is ailing, to
say the least. This will open the door for the Red Sox, even though Terry
Francona is still looking for volunteers as set-up men. The Orioles could pull a
stunner, but all three of their young pitchers (Cabrera, Loewen and Bedard)
would have to come through, and Nick Markakis would have to stretch his strong
spring through 162 games.
Even Gary Sheffield can't derange what the
Tigers have in the Central. Take them with the Indians staving off the Twins for
second and the wild card, and Chicago possibly melting all the way down into
fourth and a new skipper. The Royals will foreshadow contention in '08 and '09
but still finish behind the pack.
I'll go against the grain in the West and take
the A's. The loss of Chone Figgins seems surmountable for the Angels but he
seems to have been their engine for three years now and even the strides John
Lackey has made may ot be enough. The Rangers and Mariners are marking time --
unless Felix Hernandez lives up to last year's hype -- and this year.
The Red Sox are the pick in the East with
Baltimore second and the Yanks tumbling to third in a season that will harken
back to the gory years of the early '80s. Toronto's fourth, and Tampa Bay an
intriguing fifth. As stated, it's the Tigers, Indians, Twins, White Sox, and
Royals in the Central, then Oakland, L.A., and a you-pick-'em between Seattle
and Texas in the West.
David Ortiz looks primed to carry Boston on his
back and to finally carry home an MVP. Justin Verlander, humbled by last year's
postseason struggles, takes the Cy, and I'll be darned if I can choose between
Alex Gordon and Delmon Young for Rookie. I saw Young take a flyball at the
rightfield fence last month against the Reds, and double off Scott Hatteberg at
first. Just so long as he doesn't throw any bats.
The Braves are the World Series pick over the
Tigers. Don't stand too close to the disasters in Philly and Washington, and
maybe even in both New York parks. And don't be surprised if another massive Human Growth
Hormone scandal erupts by midseason.
You have been warned.
