Mapping Super Tuesday

Posted: Thursday, January 10, 2008 10:35 PM by Countdown

Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and Maine all precede it. But there's little doubt that this year's Super Duper Tuesday is make or break.

For the Democrats, it's a chance to pick up delegates in 22 different States.

For Republicans, 21 states are up for grabs. (Well, technically 20 and 2/3, considering that West Virginia is only holding a caucus to settle 2/3 of its GOP delegates. The remaining third have to wait until a Primary on May 13th.)

Given the unprecedented number of states voting on Feburary 5th, we asked NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd (who heads up the must read "First Read" blog) what the major candidates both expect and need to win on Super Tuesday. He shared a little of his analysis with us on Countdown Thursday night, but we couldn't get to everything. So, with the huge caveats that this could all change within any given day, hour or minute, and that it's OUR analysis alone, here's the rest.

Democrats first.

IF Hillary Clinton wins Nevada and Barack Obama wins South Carolina (we know, we know, it's a big if), this is how it might shake out on Super Tuesday.

The Clinton campaign would need to win their "base" states. Mainly states that are either in the northeast or that only let Democrats vote.

Barack Obama would likewise to secure HIS base states. Mainly states in the south, or that let independents vote.

Of course, base states alone aren't enough to propel either campaign into the front-runner seat.

Chuck Todd points out that Clinton will probably try to take away Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee away from Obama.

And that Obama will be wooing voters in Arizona, Colorado and Arkansas away from Clinton.

But for both candidates, three specific states are proving pivotal on Super Tuesday.

Massachusetts, Georgia and California.

So if a candidate gets California, plus one of either Georgia or Massachussetts, they pretty much own Super Tuesday.

As for John Edwards, Chuck Todd points out that he really needs to win South Carolina to stay in the running. But if he DOES win that, then he'll be looking to win southern base states such as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Oklahoma.

Now to the Republicans.

It's really too early to speculate what each candidate needs to accomplish on Super Tuesday. Because, as Chuck Todd pointed out in his excellent First Thoughts post on Thursday morning, all of them desperately need a win BEFORE February 5th.

Mike Huckabee needs to win South Carolina. Mitt Romney needs to win Michigan. John McCain needs South Carolina or Michigan (not to mention his neighbor, Nevada). Rudy Giuliani needs Florida.

Then it's onto Super Tuesday. And, like the Democrats, three swing states look like the key to victory.

Illinois, Missouri and... California.

So whether you be Democrat or Republican, the fate of your candidate could rest in California.

Or somewhere else.

Or not at all.

As we said, it could all change in an instant. Which is a good part of what keeps it all so interesting!

EMAIL THIS

Comments

scott henderson nv (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 3:39 PM)

small scott, I seem to remember you telling us that you were right up there with Hitler and the rest of the authoritarian uber-conservatives.

Based on your posit, your constant labeling me as a "liberal" is completely and totally wrong . . . I'm a firm believer in our Constitution and the rights which are granted there and I don't want ANYBODY, including phony conservatives such as George W. Bush, infringing upon them.

BTW, have you read any of David "Axis of Evil" Frum's new book, "Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again."? He's calling for a return to true conservatism, affordable private health insurance for all, acceptance of the theory of global warming, middle class tax cuts and tax increases for polluters/energy producers. He doesn't think too highly of his former boss, Mr. Bush. And before you call him a "liberal" you might want to do a little research . . . you can't get much more conservative or neo-conservative [member of PNAC, AEI AND he's Rudy's foreign policy advisor] than Mr. Frum.

junebug (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:22 PM)

Pam ( 3;53)
If KO references the snowing in Baghdad with a snarky comment tonight it'll make my weekend. Stay tuned.

Frederick Sweeney, Brooklyn (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:28 PM)

Back in jail again!!!
Damn't!!! Can't people just leave me alone

O J (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:28 PM)

Pat Boston (2:20 PM Post):

To follow up I thought one of Obama's best moments was during a debate Hillary was talking about all her experience and it was noted that Obama had sought advice and suggestions from some of Bill's and Hillary's old colleagues. Obama stated to Hillary that yes he had sought the advice of some of these people and once elected Presdient he just might need to call upon her for some ideas and suggestions as well.

In other words yes Hillary you have been there and done that as well as having access to some of these same people, but where are the improvements and contributions you have made to this country when you had your opportunity. Experience is a wonderful thing. But the ability to bring people together and to make contributions with other significant players (including those on the opposite side of the isle) and who want to work with you, and will work with you, is another matter altogether.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:34 PM)

Question for everyone here: Who will bring out the most ugliness from the Repugs; Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama ? Will they expose their sexism on account of Sen. Clinton or their racism on account of Obama?

Bill Rochester NY (a 1% far-left loony and proud of it) (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:36 PM)

Carol Long (3:59 PM Post):

Some good points and I'm not saying that Obama is perfect by no means. But as any politican he is going to pick his battles, issues and votes with the electorates responses in mind. But give me two people that I feel both might make a decent stab at being a good President, and I will chose the one that I think can incite and excite people into supporting good causes (especially the youth for they are our future), who is an excellent communicator, who may have less baggage regarding enemies on the other side of the isle, and who has the ability to stir the souls of people.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:48 PM)

Bill Rochester NY (4:36 PM Post):

Good question Bill. I don't know the answer. But in my opinion Obama has less for the Republicans to expose against him then Hillary. They may expose their racism on account of Obama but I believe they will expose their sexism, Clintonism, and failed my-way-or-the-highhway National Health Care Programism on account of Hillary.

C A, Tuscalossa, AL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:59 PM)

Bill, Rochester, NY:

I forgot Hillaryism as well.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:01 PM)

scott henderson nv (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 11:46 AM)

1. Why is it that liberals find it necessary to restrict freedoms of others -

2. especially when you are wrong on just about everything?

Liberals aren't interested in limiting your freedoms. Liberals want to ensure everyone's freedoms. Like the freedom to breathe clean air. You are free to pollute yourself. Do it in a way that doesn't pollute me: try the patch.

It's not that liberals have anything against smoking per se, it's the uninvited health risks due to someone else's smoking that are unwelcome. I don't recall any conservatives off the top of my head, for example, who would want to decriminalize marijuana. Why is that? Why do conervatives want to limit smokers' freedoms? Don't smokers deserve the right to smoke what ever they want?

Your right to swing your fist ends just before my nose.

2. That's just trolling. Try again.

NW Reader (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:10 PM)

Pam ( 3;53)
If KO references the snowing in Baghdad with a snarky comment tonight it'll make my weekend. Stay tuned.
Frederick Sweeney, Brooklyn (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:28 PM)

I hope he does for you Frederick; the weather sure is a better topic to talk about also!! I'll stay tuned!!

PEACE TO YOU & GOOD LUCK!!

Pam Bignardi, San Pedro, California (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:14 PM)

P.A.M.B., Oshkosh, WI (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:19 PM)

Laura in Los Angeles (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 3:48 PM)

Laura -- I found an easy resolution to the problem. I no longer sleep. I catch up on my work during those odd hours between 2 and 4 in the morning. Thanks for the kind words. You do a great job, too. I love your posts.

Anna Molly (: (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:19 PM)

Allow me one more comment please before we conclude for the weekend.

There is something about Obama, and Huckabee, Richardson and Kucinich for that matter. That no matter if you agree or disagree with their positions they all seem to feel comfortable in their own skin. There is a confidence in each of these people that win or lose, facing hard times or not, their apparent acceptance of their self-identity I believe would be a plus for any President of the United States. We have been dealing for years now with a guy who has never found that awareness or comfort with self and therefore has relied on anger, excuses, projection of blame and a my-way-or-the-highhway attitude when dealing with others. In this vain and as I see it Hillary Clinton is similar to GWB. I don't sense a comfort with self in Hillary and in fact think that she often questions her own vulnerability and those reasons why some people just may not like her. There is not a comfort level with self in Hillary as you see in Obama, Ricahrdson, Huckabee and Kucinich. If this is true, (and it may not be) I just wonder how she will be once given the power of the Presidency. We saw a little foreshadowing of this when she tried to ramrod her health care plan down people's throats under Bill's administration. Will her future actions be similar to those of GWB once given this power? I don't know, but I am very leary. I think part of her emotional moment (not holding it against her if sincere) may have been a result of her frustrations of not understanding exactly who Hillary Clinton is and why she draws the responses she does from some people. Just some thoughts.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:27 PM)

Keith & Countdown: Please invite Dennis Kucinich on your program to discuss his asking to have the NH vote recounted. Remember Ohio?

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/kucinich-recount-redux/?ref=opinion

untitled, Chicago, IL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:29 PM)

news hole moderator, update the blog please

thanks (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:29 PM)

Bill. Does a shark have a waterproof butt?

Steve Turner Cedar Falls Iowa (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:37 PM)

Newshole are you shut down for the weekend already?

update (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:46 PM)

Bill Rochester NY (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:36 PM)

The viral (think of Karl Rove) emails have already started, don't you know? They've chosen religious intolerance, instead of race baiting. According the smear mongerers, Obama is a wahabi muslim, who will take the oath of office on a Koran and destroy this country for the islamo-fascists. They've cleverly mixed trues with innuendo and lies. See for yourself.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/anthem.asp
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/church.asp

Carol, Long Valley NJ (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:55 PM)

SECOND ATTEMPT TO POST!!

Obama vs. Clinton;= Wall street vs. the HMOS. Who wins? Not we the people that's for sure.
Bill Rochester NY (a 1% far left loony and proud of it) (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 4:22 PM)

Thank you Bill; you know ALSO I supported Kucinich, then Biden and/or Dodd --sadly, they are gone!!

You summed this up perfectly; while I don't think either will be bad presidents though, just to clarify that!!

For me, my decision has sparked behavior here from people I least expected it from; therefore, after this post, I am done discussing this issue HERE; I have other outlets!!

On that note, Senator Clinton, if one looks at her record with OPEN eyes and removes personal BIAS, he/she will see her MANY, MANY accomplishments throughout both her personal and political life!!

Even during her darkest hour when she was nationally humiliated, she held her head high and marched on; I respect her!! On that note; I am done discusing it!!

PEACE BILL!!

Pam Bignardi, San Pedro, California (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 6:17 PM)

One final word; comparing Hillary Clinton to George W. Bush is really shameful in my opinion; it’s also one of the worst things I’ve read about her!! WOW!! Some people must really personally HATE Senator Clinton; personal hate is a bad thing –not healthy at all!!

Pam Bignardi, San Pedro, California (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 6:30 PM)

scott henderson nv -- My answer to your last was either too long or a bit too playful in my liberal kicking sort of way, so I’ll try again. You seem testy, sir. Did you get up on the left side of the bed this morning, or something? Of course I’m wrong. What would you expect? I have no problem getting too and from work, but I confess I’m having a little trouble navigating your argument because it seems to keep turning in circles.

I must have been wrong about the vertical/horizontal axis, but now that you tell me you’re closer to Ron Paul, that changes things. I don’t know what, of course, but something, I’m sure. You’re the one who wants to give power to the elite -- the elite being corporate executives and guys like Bush and Cheney who only give to the rest of us in ways that are guaranteed to trickle back up. Not every liberal wants a handout, but real liberals do have compassion for those less fortunate. As a genuine liberal, I’m not interested in inhibiting your freedom as long as it doesn’t negatively impact on others. Eat hamburgers and do what you need to do about your carbon footprint, but don’t complain to me when you suffer an injury your insurance company won’t pay for because the government didn’t require coverage for it. Freedom always has a flipside.

You never answered my question about whether you think it’s appropriate for government to regulate private decisions like abortion or gay marriage. But that’s okay. What could one expect? I’ll tell you one thing, though. I wouldn’t give up MY freedom to be comfy in George Bush’s arms -- that’s for sure. Always a pleasure, scott.

Anna Molly (: (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 6:33 PM)

I like that laundry list of Barrack accomplishments. Now if you just say you maybe support something (even if you don't actually vote for it) you get to claim it in your list of accomplishments.
Who knew?
P.A.M.B., Oshkosh, WI (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 5:19 PM)

Obviously, the Senator from Illinois knew and still knows. Glad to see that people are looking into Obama's so-called excellent record of accomplishments, a joke in itself. But according to some hear, he can speak well and inspire us and that’s qualification enough for president. If he gets elected, many will be disappointed; the man hasn’t done anything and runs away when he has had the chance. But Hillary is just bad and that’s it, vote for Obama then; he speaks so well that’ll get the job done, not.

People really do need to get over themselves. Might I suggest instead of spending so much time here citing Obama’s inspirational speeches will unite the country actually study the Senator’s record and not the inner workings of his brain. We have Doctor Phil for that, another sorry case.

Nice post.

Josie, New Mexico (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 9:00 PM)

What happens if Obama wins Guam ?

Puzzled (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 9:13 PM)

C A Tuscaloosa: ...who is an excellent communicator, who may have less baggage regarding enemies on the other side of the isle....
Don't count on the less baggage. After all, GWB is our current President...beating out all others going against him who didn't seem to have baggage, but had baggage created for them by the GOP war machine. After all, that’s what they do; run and win elections, so they can stay in power and maintain their lifestyle. Trust me, there will be baggage, real, imagined or fabricated.
As for being a great communicator, or motivational speaker? They only thing I see him motivating people to do is vote for him...that in and of itself doesn't improve anything. Change simply for the sake of change is BS. If there's no more to it than that, bye bye. Any of the Democrats would be change from what we currently have. Being a good talker doesn't get anything done and if the best you can do is get people to vote for you and then what, well, we'll actually just be in the same damned boat we're in now.
As for Clinton just like GWB? Well, it doesn't get much worse than that. Not much to say to that except that's not someone who's "very leary" rather, its sounds more like the standard Clinton hater. You are right Pam...not healthy.

Laura, Groveland, FL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 10:57 PM)

Anna Molly (: Friday, January 11, 2008 5:19 PM..LOL! thanks Anna. There just aren't enough hours in the day, so lack of sleep is sometimes the answer. I nap in the evening and stay up late at night to catch up on blogs, information, etc. As the time of most of my posts are between those odd times you mentioned. I learn so much for you and our regular bloggers and also many other folks who come here every so often. I really feel this is the best place to be.

Laura in Los Angeles (Sent Saturday, January 12, 2008 4:39 AM)

Frederick Sweeney, Brooklyn Friday, January 11, 2008 3:29 PM..On a lighter note, I will vote Republican when it snows in Baghdad...what!...it is?...really?...
today?...My prior comment is no longer operative.

LOL! That's good Frederick!

Laura in Los Angeles (Sent Saturday, January 12, 2008 4:48 AM)

Watch your CSI, smirk at your neighbor's inferiority, lie to avoid confrontation, chug your Starbuck's coffee, go to church on Sunday curse on Monday, label those you have no desire to understand, pop those pills, cover up your selfishness by giving a Hallmark, be blindly patriotic to a country that was once a fruit which has become rotten and stinks.

Is it too far gone? Will revolution fall upon the shoulders of those we elect?

It is foolish to think those who gain power will in turn give it away without much of a fight. How many layers (bureaucratic, economic, social ladder, local, state, associations, unions, organizations, committees, triplicates, duplicates) must be sifted to actually change something?

Our voice has become ever the more meek.

It starts outside your front door.

John, Austin, TX (Sent Saturday, January 12, 2008 4:42 PM)

JHoward, Salyersville, KY Friday, January 11, 2008 1:58 PM..If California is going to be so important, why no coverage of the Voter's Initiative Act, which last I heard, was still being pushed? These dirty tricks need to be exposed before the election, not contested afterward, when it does little good.

Good question. I was very surprised to learn that the GOP is moving ahead with it's desire to have California voters approve to appropriate 20-22 of California's 55 electoral college votes by ballot initiative for the 2008 Presidential election. It would not affect 2008 election, but would the 2012. Original reports had it dead in the water because of lack of funding and signatures. The movement is still having those problems. Even if they were to get enough funding, which is doubtful, the necessary signatures required is a real problem. They have to collect a minimum of 700,000 allowing for invalid signatures, to be able to reach the 434,000 needed. It can't be ignored that this is certainly resorting to trickery by the Republican Party, something they've become so adept at. Regardless of how one fels about the 2001 election and 2004 re-election of George Bush and how it was achieved, there are still many unanswered questions about the trickery, if you will, involved in this. Questions asked by many of those who voted for him and have since regretted voting for him. I only use it as an example of why they are doing this to get the CA initiative passed.

I can't believe my fellow Californians would even consider voting for such a measure. With the current political climate and the total disgust with this administration, the passage of such an initiative could conceivably mean Republicans could be in office for the rest of my lifetime and beyond..a most depressing thought.

Still, the bottom line is this movement is having problems. Collecting enough signatures, and collecting enough funds to put it on the ballot. Following is a link I hope you find useful explaining what is going on currently..dated December 1, 2007

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-initiative1dec01,0,4010680,print.story?

Laura in Los Angeles (Sent Saturday, January 12, 2008 4:49 PM)

Senator Obama graduated from Columbia University with a degree in Political Science, specializing in International Relations.

While at Harvard he was elected President of the Harvard Law Review. He graduated from Harvard with a Juris Doctor degree (Post Graduate professional degree) magna cum laud.

He was a lecturer of constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School from 1993 until his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004.He still maintains an office at the school for his use as a guest lecturer.

Others can fill in on his public work, which has been quite extensive, but his academic record is excellent.

Ron, Winchendon, MA (Sent Saturday, January 12, 2008 7:24 PM)

Laura, Groveland, FL (Sent Friday, January 11, 2008 10:57 PM)

Laura --I consider C A to be one of the finest people I have EVER had the privilege of knowing; he does not HATE anyone; it's not in him!! He is one of the kindest and most loving people I know; seriously, I am in awe of this wonderful person.

He puts passion into his posts; he has challenged my thinking; he has helped me grow spiritually and I truly love him!!

I MUST clarify that; we are dear friends and I would not trade that for anything in the world; people have differences at times --that's it; however, you have misjudged C A --I should NEVER have written anything about "hate" in that post; I was wrong; it was a long and emotional week --many here were on edge --no more, no less!!

Please, you have the wrong impression --

C A - You are my rock here and I truly love you; my apologies for any misunderstanding and for my words --you are the most awe-inspiring person I have ever known!!

PEACE C A - GOD BLESS YOU!!

Pam Bignardi, San Pedro, California (Sent Sunday, January 13, 2008 12:51 AM)

The problem with this analysis for the Dems is it is not a winner take all system. Therefore by how much a candidate wins their "base" states may matter more than whether or not Obama or Clinton carry California by a couple points.

I also would quibble about who has better support where. Obama is clearly favored in IL, and I would argue all southern states such as GA, AL, TN - since Clinton significantly lost the African-American vote to "undecided" in MI. Clinton is strongest in NY and the Dems only states. The real toss-ups are the Western ones that allow Independent voters, of which CA is the main prize. However, again, percetage of victory is more important than the numbers of states that are carried.

Matt Las Cruces, NM (Sent Wednesday, January 16, 2008 6:36 PM)

Voters should understand that their "party" will back whomever is choosen as their candidate for the office of President. These voters should also realize that the candidate they pick should be the one that can attract indepent voters. As has been shown in the caucases and primaries so far, the indepent vote with be the swing vote that elects the President. Some of the candidates only appeal to solid party members and cannot gain enough support from moderate and indenpent voters to win the general election. If you are an informed voter, you know the candidate I am talking about. Most people in America are not truely and soley conservatives nor are the truely and soley liberals, Most are Modlicons,which is a mixture of moderates, liberals, and conservatives depending on the issue they are considering. Because of this the party the chooses a candidate the can speak to all will when the general election.

Charles Thompson, Poplar Bluff, Mo 63901 (Sent Monday, January 21, 2008 1:53 PM)

Voters should understand that their "party" will back whomever is choosen as their candidate for the office of President. These voters should also realize that the candidate they pick should be the one that can attract indepent voters. As has been shown in the caucases and primaries so far, the independant vote will be the swing vote that elects the President. Some of the candidates, ie; Romeny, Thompson, Huckabee,Guliani and Hillary only appeal to solid party members and cannot gain enough support from moderate and independant voters to win the general election. Most people in America are not truely and soley conservatives nor are the truely and soley liberals, Most are Modlicons,which is a mixture of moderates, liberals, and conservatives depending on the issue they are considering. Because of this the party the chooses a candidate the can speak to all will when the general election.

Charles Thompson, Poplar Bluff, Mo 63901 (Sent Monday, January 21, 2008 1:59 PM)

"MY GOODNESS" Is everybody afraid to ask the Clintons,"If they plan to replace all the items,they took from the White House before Bush took over? And what would Bill be using the Oval Office for, when it wasn't being used for afficial buisness?

Billy Cagle (Sent Monday, January 28, 2008 2:40 PM)

Can you just list the states in Super Tuesday???

Matt Campos, Milton, Massachusetts (Sent Tuesday, January 29, 2008 8:20 PM)

Can you just list the states in Super Tuesday?

Matt Campos, Milton, Massachusetts (Sent Tuesday, January 29, 2008 8:20 PM)

Can you just put on all the states in it?

Matt Campos, Milton, Massachusetts (Sent Tuesday, January 29, 2008 8:22 PM)

ALL I WANT TO SAY IS GO BARAK OBAMA!!!! WE NEED A MAN FOR CHANGE

KEKE (Sent Sunday, February 03, 2008 1:53 PM)

GO BARACKA OBAMA

TREVOR (Sent Monday, February 04, 2008 5:45 PM)

<< Previous

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://thenewshole.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=570107

More News Hole

Recent Posts:

Archives:

Categories:

The Essentials

Syndicate This Site

Add The News Hole to your news reader:

ABOUT THE NEWS HOLE